Predicen ciclones mediterráneos de forma rápida y barata/ Simple and fast prediction of Mediterranean cyclones

Científicos de la Universidad de Islas Baleares han desarrollado una nueva metodología para mejorar la predicción entre 48 y 24 horas antes de los ciclones que ocurren en el Mar Mediterráneo. Los investigadores han aplicado un cálculo estadístico de sensibilidades de la atmósfera real para predecir los ciclones desde una perspectiva climatológica precisa y de bajo coste.

La región mediterránea es una área de ciclones muy activa que con frecuencia se ve afectada por estos fenómenos atmosféricos severos que producen vientos fuertes y lluvias intensas. Aunque la comunidad científica se esfuerza en mejorar la predicción numérica de los ciclones, los sistemas habituales siguen siendo costosos. Los estudios de sensibilidad son una propuesta de bajo coste y eficiente para determinar las estrategias de observación óptimas.

Con este método, los científicos son capaces de mejorar la predicción de la evolución y el impacto de los ciclones entre 48 y 24 horas antes de su formación completa. La temperatura y la velocidad del viento son factores importantes para la predicción del fenómeno.

Según Garcies y Homar del Grupo de Meteorología de la Universidad de las Islas Baleares (UIB) , "los resultados para ciclones mediterráneos intensos muestran coherencia dinámica, espacial y temporal de los campos de sensibilidad, y pueden competir con resultados análogos obtenidos con técnicas mucho más costosas”,

Scientists of the University of the Balearic Islands have developed a new methodology to improve the prediction between 48 and 24 hours before the apparition of the cyclones that happen in the Mediterranean Sea. The researchers have applied a statistical calculation of sensitivities of the real atmosphere to predict cyclones from a low cost and precise climatologic perspective.

The Mediterranean region is a very active cyclone area frequently affected by these severe atmospherics phenomena, that produce strong winds and intense rains. Although the scientific community strives in improving the numerical prediction of cyclones, the habitual systems continue being expensive. The sensitivity studies are a efficient and low-cost proposal to determine the optimal strategies of observation.

With this method, the scientists will be able to improve the prediction of the evolution and the impact of cyclones between 48 and 24 hours before their complete formation. The temperature and the wind speed are important factors for the prediction of the phenomenon.

According to Garcies and Homar from the Metereology Research Group of the University of Balearic Islands (UIB) , “the results for intense Mediterranean cyclones show dynamic, space and temporal coherence of the sensitivity fields, and are coherent with analogous results found by using much more expensive techniques"

Tomado de/ Taken from Plataforma SINC

Resumen de la publicación/ Abstract of the paper
L. GARCIES and V. HOMAR, Ensemble sensitivities of the real atmosphere: application to Mediterranean intense cyclones, Tellus Series A- Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 61(3) : 394-406 (2009. )
DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2009.00392.x

ABSTRACT
Ensemble sensitivity has been recently proposed as an alternative cheap approach to sensitivity analysis. We adapt it to compute climatological sensitivity estimates of intense Mediterranean cyclones using a climatology based of the ECMWF ERA-40 fields. A catalogue of 1202 events, objectively detected and classified in 25 clusters, is used in this study. Sensitivity fields are derived for each intense Mediterranean cyclone type by correlating the precursor conditions with the mature cyclones depths. Corrections to the raw sensitivity estimates are applied by means of the correlation coefficient. Further, a normalization based on the climatological spatial variability of the variance of the precursor conditions is used to derive the final sensitivity fields. The 24 h sensitivity information derived for each intense Mediterranean cyclone type is easily interpretable both in amplitude and distribution. A synthetic result combining the sensitivity fields for all 25 intense Mediterranean cyclone classes shows that the evolution of these high-impact systems 24 h prior to its maturity stage depends largely on structures located over Western Europe, the Northern African lands and parts of east North Atlantic. These results are in agreement and complement with previous results obtained with the expensive adjoint model, although further work is needed to objectively verify the results.